Financial Services & Capital Markets
Interest rates, credit, exchange rates and the trade finance that keeps goods moving.
- Interest rates
- Credit conditions
- Exchange rates
- Trade finance
The data
11 seriesNominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index — Daily
The dollar's value against the currencies of the United States' main trading partners, weighted by trade, from the Federal Reserve Board: higher is a stronger dollar.
121.4
Index (Jan 2006=100) · Oct 16, 2026
▲ 0.6% y/y
The chart shows the daily figures as a rolling average.
Treasury Yield Curve — Daily 10-Year Minus 3-Month Spread
0.88
Oct 19, 2026
▲ 0.9 pp y/y
The gap between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields, each trading day: the yield-curve spread the New York Fed's recession model is built on.
Percentage points · Daily · chart smoothed (rolling average)
Treasury Yield Curve — Daily 10-Year Minus 2-Year Spread
0.38
Oct 19, 2026
▼ 0.2 pp y/y
The gap between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, each trading day: the other widely followed measure of the yield curve's slope.
Percentage points · Daily · chart smoothed (rolling average)
U.S. 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate — Daily
2.38
Oct 19, 2026
▲ 0.1 pp y/y
The inflation rate over the next five years at which ordinary and inflation-protected Treasury notes pay the same: a market-based reading of inflation expectations.
Percent per year · Daily · chart smoothed (rolling average)
U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate — Daily
2.35
Oct 19, 2026
▲ 0.1 pp y/y
The average inflation rate over the next ten years at which ordinary and inflation-protected Treasury notes pay the same: a market-based reading of longer-term inflation expectations.
Percent per year · Daily · chart smoothed (rolling average)
U.S. 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation — Daily
2.32
Oct 19, 2026
▲ 0.1 pp y/y
The average inflation rate the Treasury market implies for the five years that begin five years from now: a gauge of long-run inflation expectations.
Percent per year · Daily · chart smoothed (rolling average)
U.S. Recession Probability — New York Fed Yield-Curve Model
12.8
Sep 2026
▼ 15 pp y/y
The New York Fed's estimate, from the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, of the probability of a U.S. recession twelve months ahead.
Percent probability · Monthly
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index — Weekly
−0.72
Oct 9, 2026
▼ 0.2 y/y
A weekly measure of stress in U.S. financial markets built from interest rates, yield spreads and volatility: zero is normal, above zero more stress than usual.
Index (0 = normal conditions) · Weekly
U.S. Corporate Credit Spread — Gilchrist–Zakrajšek (GZ), Monthly
0.93
Sep 2026
▲ 0.0 pp y/y
The average spread of U.S. corporate bond yields over Treasury yields of the same duration, from the Federal Reserve Board: a broad measure of what companies pay to borrow over the government.
Percentage points · Monthly
U.S. Excess Bond Premium — Monthly
−0.39
Sep 2026
▼ 0.1 pp y/y
The part of U.S. corporate credit spreads not explained by companies' default risk: a measure of how much compensation bond investors demand for bearing credit risk.
Percentage points · Monthly
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index — Weekly
−0.5
Oct 9, 2026
▲ 0.0 sd y/y
A weekly summary of U.S. money markets, debt and equity markets and the banking system: positive values are tighter financial conditions than average, negative values looser.
Index (average = 0, standard deviation = 1) · Weekly
What to watch
- 01Financial conditions
- 02Dollar funding
- 03Sanctions on payments