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CONKLING KOPCIKECONOMICS
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Financial Services & Capital Markets

U.S. Excess Bond Premium — Monthly

The part of U.S. corporate credit spreads not explained by companies' default risk: a measure of how much compensation bond investors demand for bearing credit risk.

Data status: Current
Official statisticSource figures as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Federal Reserve Board
Period covered
Jan 1973 – Sep 2026
Source figures as of
October 16, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Financial Services & Capital Markets
Seasonal adjustment
Not applicable
Transformations
Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
Revisions
Re-estimated by the publisher over its whole history with each release, so past values move a little every time; the site shows the latest estimate and does not log these moves as revisions.
Data status
Current

Full method · Research standards

Key figures

CK estimatePercentage points · calculated by CK Economics from Federal Reserve Board data

Latest · Sep 2026
−0.39
−0.1 pp vs a year earlier1
5-year change
+0.3 pp
since Sep 20212
10-year change
−0.3 pp
since Sep 20162
Record high
3.41
Oct 20083
Record low
−1.08
Jul 20033
Where the latest ranks
9th pct.
Higher than 9% of the other 644 observations since Jan 19734
  1. 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
  2. 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier.
  3. 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
  4. 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.

Methodology

The excess bond premium (Gilchrist and Zakrajšek, 2012) is the GZ credit spread minus the part that the issuers' expected default risk, measured from their balance sheets and equity prices, accounts for. What remains reflects the price of bearing credit risk rather than the risk itself; it averages about zero over the history. The Federal Reserve Board's staff update it monthly, in percentage points, in the CSV published with the 2016 FEDS Note. It is a model estimate: the Board re-estimates the default-risk part over the whole history with each update, so past values move a little every month; the site shows the latest estimate and does not log those moves as revisions. The Board's file also carries a recession probability, which is not shown here.

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Source

Federal Reserve Board, excess bond premium (ebp), with Favara, Gilchrist, Lewis and Zakrajšek, "Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium", FEDS Notes, 2016: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html — figures as published on 16 October 2026.

All data

645 observations, newest first · Percentage points

Downloading means you accept our TermsCSVJSON
PeriodValueChange y/y
Sep 2026−0.39−0.11 pp
Aug 2026−0.23−0.07 pp
Jul 2026−0.31−0.11 pp
Jun 2026−0.28−0.1 pp
May 2026−0.37−0.2 pp
Apr 2026−0.2−0.14 pp
Mar 2026−0.26−0.26 pp
Feb 2026−0.26−0.03 pp
Jan 2026−0.26+0.01 pp
Dec 2025−0.21+0.23 pp
Nov 2025−0.20 pp
Oct 2025−0.25+0.08 pp
Sep 2025−0.29−0.22 pp
Aug 2025−0.15−0.15 pp
Jul 2025−0.2−0.15 pp
Jun 2025−0.18−0.19 pp
May 2025−0.17−0.07 pp
Apr 2025−0.06+0.11 pp
Mar 20250+0.06 pp
Feb 2025−0.22−0.12 pp
Jan 2025−0.27−0.23 pp
Dec 2024−0.43−0.23 pp
Nov 2024−0.19−0.14 pp
Oct 2024−0.33−0.59 pp

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