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CONKLING KOPCIKECONOMICS
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Financial Services & Capital Markets

Treasury Yield Curve — Daily 10-Year Minus 3-Month Spread

The gap between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields, each trading day: the yield-curve spread the New York Fed's recession model is built on.

Data status: Current
Official statisticSource figures as of October 19, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Period covered
Jan 3, 2000 – Oct 19, 2026
Source figures as of
October 19, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Financial Services & Capital Markets
Seasonal adjustment
Not applicable
Transformations
Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
Revisions
Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
Data status
Current

Full method · Research standards

Key figures

CK estimatePercentage points · calculated by CK Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data

Latest · Oct 19, 2026
0.88
+0.9 pp vs a year earlier1
5-year change
−0.7 pp
since Oct 19, 20212
10-year change
−0.5 pp
since Oct 19, 20162
Record high
3.85
May 13, 20043
Record low
−1.89
May 4, 2023 (and 1 other period)3
Where the latest ranks
37th pct.
Higher than 37% of the other 6,701 observations since Jan 3, 20004
  1. 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
  2. 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier.
  3. 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
  4. 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.

Methodology

The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 3-month constant-maturity yield, in percentage points, as calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from the yields the U.S. Treasury publishes each business day. A negative value means the curve is inverted: short-term bills yield more than 10-year notes. Values exist for bond-market trading days only; weekends and market holidays have no value and are never filled. CK Economics keeps the series from January 2000 (FRED's goes back to 1982). The spread is shown as published: CK does not smooth it or turn it into a signal. A long monthly history of the same spread, back to 1959, sits under the New York Fed's recession probability.

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Source

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M), from U.S. Treasury yields, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M — figures as published on 19 October 2026.

All data

6,702 observations, newest first · Percentage points

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PeriodValueChange y/y
Oct 19, 20260.88+0.85 pp
Oct 16, 20260.83+0.86 pp
Oct 15, 20260.82+0.8 pp
Oct 14, 20260.91+0.9 pp
Oct 13, 20260.95+0.94 pp
Oct 9, 20260.99+0.88 pp
Oct 8, 20260.99+0.87 pp
Oct 7, 20261.06+0.93 pp
Oct 6, 20261.06+0.9 pp
Oct 5, 20261.09+0.93 pp
Oct 2, 20261.09+1.01 pp
Oct 1, 20261.07+0.96 pp
Sep 30, 20261.09+0.95 pp
Sep 29, 20261.01+0.9 pp
Sep 28, 20260.96+0.85 pp
Sep 25, 20260.93+0.79 pp
Sep 24, 20260.94+0.8 pp
Sep 23, 20260.92+0.8 pp
Sep 22, 20260.8+0.65 pp
Sep 21, 20260.79+0.64 pp
Sep 18, 20260.87+0.79 pp
Sep 17, 20260.82+0.78 pp
Sep 16, 20260.87+0.87 pp
Sep 15, 20260.89+0.9 pp

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