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CONKLING KOPCIKECONOMICS
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Financial Services & Capital Markets

U.S. 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate — Daily

The inflation rate over the next five years at which ordinary and inflation-protected Treasury notes pay the same: a market-based reading of inflation expectations.

Data status: Current
Official statisticSource figures as of October 19, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Period covered
Jan 2, 2003 – Oct 19, 2026
Source figures as of
October 19, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Financial Services & Capital Markets
Seasonal adjustment
Not applicable
Transformations
Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
Revisions
Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
Data status
Current

Full method · Research standards

Key figures

CK estimatePercent per year · calculated by CK Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data

Latest · Oct 19, 2026
2.38
+0.1 pp vs a year earlier1
5-year change
−0.3 pp
since Oct 19, 20212
10-year change
+0.8 pp
since Oct 19, 20162
Record high
3.59
Mar 25, 20223
Record low
−2.24
Nov 28, 20083
Where the latest ranks
76th pct.
Higher than 76% of the other 5,952 observations since Jan 2, 20034
  1. 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
  2. 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier.
  3. 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
  4. 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.

Methodology

The 5-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, in percent a year, as calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from the U.S. Treasury's daily yields. It is the average annual CPI inflation over the next five years at which the two notes would earn the same. It is not a pure expectation: it also carries an inflation risk premium and the TIPS liquidity premium, which can move it, especially in market stress (it went sharply negative in late 2008). Values exist for trading days only; days without a value are never filled. CK Economics shows it as published, with no signal.

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Source

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE), from U.S. Treasury yields, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE — figures as published on 19 October 2026.

All data

5,953 observations, newest first · Percent per year

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PeriodValueChange y/y
Oct 19, 20262.38+0.1 pp
Oct 16, 20262.37+0.08 pp
Oct 15, 20262.330 pp
Oct 14, 20262.36+0.03 pp
Oct 13, 20262.330 pp
Oct 9, 20262.34−0.05 pp
Oct 8, 20262.37−0.02 pp
Oct 7, 20262.37−0.02 pp
Oct 6, 20262.37−0.01 pp
Oct 5, 20262.36−0.02 pp
Oct 2, 20262.370 pp
Oct 1, 20262.36−0.03 pp
Sep 30, 20262.36−0.06 pp
Sep 29, 20262.34−0.07 pp
Sep 28, 20262.33−0.08 pp
Sep 25, 20262.34−0.08 pp
Sep 24, 20262.33−0.09 pp
Sep 23, 20262.34−0.08 pp
Sep 22, 20262.32−0.1 pp
Sep 21, 20262.33−0.09 pp
Sep 18, 20262.31−0.13 pp
Sep 17, 20262.32−0.11 pp
Sep 16, 20262.35−0.07 pp
Sep 15, 20262.410 pp

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