CK Intelligence
Market monitors
The business cycle, financial conditions and inflation on openly published data: the Federal Reserve System, U.S. statistical agencies and the Bank for International Settlements, and indicators built from their figures.
Recession risk
The yield curve, the New York Fed’s recession probability, the Sahm rule and jobless claims.
10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread
0.88 pp
Oct 19, 2026
Financial conditions
The Chicago Fed and St. Louis Fed indexes, corporate credit spreads, the dollar and policy rates.
Chicago Fed NFCI
-0.50
Oct 9, 2026
Inflation and policy
Consumer prices and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure, market inflation expectations and central bank rates.
PCE inflation, 12 months
3.4%
Aug 2026
CK Momentum Index
CK’s own composite of output, jobs, spending, trade and port activity: how fast the U.S. economy is moving against its usual pace.
CK proprietary indicator, standard deviations from the usual pace
-0.04
Sep 2026