Skip to content
CONKLING KOPCIKECONOMICS

CK Intelligence

Recession risk

The indicators economists watch for a turn in the U.S. business cycle, from the Federal Reserve, the Labor Department and the Sahm rule as published in FRED.

10-year minus 3-month

0.88 pp

Oct 19, 2026

Change on previous
+0.05 pp from Oct 16, 2026
Change on a year earlier
+0.86 pp

10-year minus 2-year

0.38 pp

Oct 19, 2026

Change on previous
+0.03 pp from Oct 16, 2026
Change on a year earlier
−0.18 pp

NY Fed recession probability

12.8%

Sep 2026

Change on previous
−1.1 pp from Aug 2026
Change on a year earlier
−14.7 pp

Of a recession twelve months after the month shown.

Sahm rule

0.00 pp

Sep 2026

Change on previous
+0.07 pp from Aug 2026
Change on a year earlier
−0.23 pp

Initial jobless claims

199,000

Oct 10, 2026

Change on previous
+1,000 from Oct 3, 2026
Change on a year earlier
−34,000

Week ending on the date shown.

The yield curve

The gap between long- and short-term Treasury yields. When short rates rise above long ones the curve is inverted, which has come before most U.S. recessions since the 1960s, though not every inversion has been followed by one.

Treasury yield spreads since 2000: 10-year minus 3-month and 10-year minus 2-year, in percentage points, with U.S. recessions shaded.

Grey bands: U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.

Show the figures as a table
Official statisticFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · as of October 19, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Period covered
Jan 3, 2000 – Oct 19, 2026
Source figures as of
October 19, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Financial Services & Capital Markets
Seasonal adjustment
Not applicable
Transformations
The two published spreads drawn on one chart. Daily values are drawn at each week’s last trading day; the full daily series is on the dataset’s page
Revisions
Recalculated on each input’s latest figures.
Data status
Current

Research standards

Full series and downloads: 10-year minus 3-month · 10-year minus 2-year

New York Fed recession probability

The New York Fed’s model turns each month’s 10-year minus 3-month spread into the probability of a recession twelve months later. It is a reading of one indicator, not a forecast by CK Economics.

The New York Fed's yield-curve probability of a U.S. recession twelve months ahead, monthly since 1960, each value dated by the month of the spread it comes from (the New York Fed dates it twelve months later), with recessions shaded.

Grey bands: U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.

Show the figures as a table
Official statisticFederal Reserve Bank of New York · as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Period covered
Jan 1959 – Sep 2026
Source figures as of
October 16, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Financial Services & Capital Markets
Seasonal adjustment
Not applicable
Transformations
Dated by CK Economics by the month of the spread each probability comes from (the New York Fed dates it twelve months later), and shown in percent
Revisions
Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
Data status
Current

Full method · Research standards

Full series and downloads: Recession probability

The Sahm rule

How far the three-month average unemployment rate is above its low of the past year, using the figures as first published. In past recessions it rose above 0.50 early on; it has also crossed that line without one following.

The real-time Sahm rule recession indicator, monthly since 1960, with the rule's 0.50 threshold and recessions shaded.

Grey bands: U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.

Show the figures as a table
Official statisticClaudia Sahm, via FRED · as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Claudia Sahm, via FRED
Period covered
Dec 1959 – Sep 2026
Source figures as of
October 16, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Whole economy (not a single sector)
Seasonal adjustment
Seasonally adjusted
Transformations
None: figures as published
Revisions
Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
Data status
Current
Limitations
Not an agency statistic: Claudia Sahm’s indicator, calculated from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ unemployment rates and published in FRED.

Full method · Research standards

Full series and downloads: Sahm rule

Initial jobless claims

New claims for unemployment insurance each week, seasonally adjusted: the most frequent official reading of layoffs. Shown from 2022, after the pandemic weeks of 2020, which ran to over six million and would flatten everything since.

Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted, since January 2022.
Show the figures as a table
Official statisticU.S. Employment and Training Administration · as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
U.S. Employment and Training Administration
Period covered
Jan 7, 1967 – Oct 10, 2026
Source figures as of
October 16, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Whole economy (not a single sector)
Seasonal adjustment
Seasonally adjusted
Transformations
Shown from January 2022; the full series from 1967 is on the dataset’s page
Revisions
Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
Data status
Current

Full method · Research standards

Full series and downloads: Initial claims