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Sahm Rule Recession Indicator — Monthly, Real Time

How far the three-month average U.S. unemployment rate sits above its low of the previous twelve months, as the data stood at the time: the Sahm rule.

Data status: Current
Official statisticSource figures as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods
Sources
Claudia Sahm, via FRED
Period covered
Dec 1959 – Sep 2026
Source figures as of
October 16, 2026
Geography
United States
Sector
Whole economy (not a single sector)
Seasonal adjustment
Seasonally adjusted
Transformations
Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
Revisions
Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
Data status
Current
Limitations
Not an agency statistic: Claudia Sahm’s indicator, calculated from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ unemployment rates and published in FRED.

Full method · Research standards

Key figures

CK estimatePercentage points · calculated by CK Economics from Claudia Sahm data

Latest · Sep 2026
0
−0.2 pp vs a year earlier1
5-year change
+0.4 pp
since Sep 20212
10-year change
−0.1 pp
since Sep 20162
Record high
9.5
Jun 20203
Record low
−0.37
Nov 1983 (and 1 other period)3
Where the latest ranks
33rd pct.
Higher than 33% of the other 800 observations since Dec 19594
  1. 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
  2. 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier.
  3. 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
  4. 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.

Methodology

The Sahm rule (Claudia Sahm, 2019) compares the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted, from the BLS) with its lowest three-month average over the previous twelve months. The indicator is that difference, in percentage points. In past U.S. recessions it has risen above 0.50 early in the recession; that threshold is part of the rule's definition, not a CK Economics signal. This is the real-time version: each month's value uses the unemployment rates as first published, not as later revised, so the history shows what the rule said at the time. It has crossed 0.50 without a recession following (for example in mid-2024), so it is one reading among several. It is an economist's indicator built from official BLS data rather than a statistical agency's own series; FRED publishes it and labels it public domain.

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Source

Claudia Sahm, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME), from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rates, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME — figures as published on 16 October 2026.

All data

801 observations, newest first · Percentage points

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PeriodValueChange y/y
Sep 20260−0.23 pp
Aug 2026−0.07−0.2 pp
Jul 2026−0.03−0.13 pp
Jun 20260.07−0.1 pp
May 20260.1−0.17 pp
Apr 20260.13−0.14 pp
Mar 20260.2−0.07 pp
Feb 20260.270 pp
Jan 20260.3−0.07 pp
Dec 20250.35−0.05 pp
Nov 20250.430 pp
Sep 20250.23−0.27 pp
Aug 20250.13−0.44 pp
Jul 20250.1−0.43 pp
Jun 20250.17−0.26 pp
May 20250.27−0.1 pp
Apr 20250.27−0.1 pp
Mar 20250.27−0.03 pp
Feb 20250.270 pp
Jan 20250.37+0.17 pp
Dec 20240.4+0.17 pp
Nov 20240.43+0.13 pp
Oct 20240.43+0.1 pp
Sep 20240.5+0.3 pp

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