{"title":"Sahm Rule Recession Indicator — Monthly, Real Time","slug":"sahm-rule-recession-indicator","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/sahm-rule-recession-indicator","description":"How far the three-month average U.S. unemployment rate sits above its low of the previous twelve months, as the data stood at the time: the Sahm rule.","unit":"Percentage points","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T20:58:51.908462+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"Claudia Sahm, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME), from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rates, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME — figures as published on 16 October 2026.","provider":"Claudia Sahm, via FRED","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"seasonally_adjusted","geography":"United States","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME"],"methodology":"The Sahm rule (Claudia Sahm, 2019) compares the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted, from the BLS) with its lowest three-month average over the previous twelve months. The indicator is that difference, in percentage points. In past U.S. recessions it has risen above 0.50 early in the recession; that threshold is part of the rule's definition, not a CK Economics signal.\n\nThis is the real-time version: each month's value uses the unemployment rates as first published, not as later revised, so the history shows what the rule said at the time. It has crossed 0.50 without a recession following (for example in mid-2024), so it is one reading among several. It is an economist's indicator built from official BLS data rather than a statistical agency's own series; FRED publishes it and labels it public domain.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:26:49.687402+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":null,"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). Sahm Rule Recession Indicator — Monthly, Real Time [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/sahm-rule-recession-indicator","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in Percentage points","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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