Trade simulator
Close a strait. See where trade goes.
Combine closures, blockades, tariffs, production cuts and dearer routes, and see which flows reroute, switch supplier or stop. It runs in your browser.
How it works
- The data
- Every product traded between every pair of countries in 2024 (CEPII BACI, HS4), split by mode, on a network of over 2,300 ports, airports, straits, rail lines, airspaces, border crossings and pipelines.
- The model
- Each flow takes its cheapest open route. Product markets then re-clear: buyers turn to other suppliers as delivered prices rise, and the price and supply effects pass through input-output tables to GDP and consumer prices.
- The limits
- No stockpiles or reserves are drawn down, and nothing carries over after a shock ends. Routes are modelled, not observed. Within the download budget, the largest products touched are modelled and the share left out is shown.