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CONKLING KOPCIKECONOMICS

Trade simulator

Close a strait. See where trade goes.

Combine closures, blockades, tariffs, production cuts and dearer routes, and see which flows reroute, switch supplier or stop. It runs in your browser.

Start from a preset

Open one, then change anything in it.

Your scenario

No shocks yet. Open a preset above, add one below, or click a country or strait on the map.

Add a shock

Map

Results

A first-year comparison with 2024 trade, with no stockpiles drawn down. Illustrative, not a forecast. Every shock starts at once; prices and flows are the model’s steady state while it lasts, averaged over the year.

  • Add a shock, or open a preset.

How it works

The data
Every product traded between every pair of countries in 2024 (CEPII BACI, HS4), split by mode, on a network of over 2,300 ports, airports, straits, rail lines, airspaces, border crossings and pipelines.
The model
Each flow takes its cheapest open route. Product markets then re-clear: buyers turn to other suppliers as delivered prices rise, and the price and supply effects pass through input-output tables to GDP and consumer prices.
The limits
No stockpiles or reserves are drawn down, and nothing carries over after a shock ends. Routes are modelled, not observed. Within the download budget, the largest products touched are modelled and the share left out is shown.