Simulator · macro scenarios

Change policy. See the economy respond.

Move interest rates, spending, taxes, productivity, tariffs or energy prices for one of 28 economies, and see illustrative paths against the IMF baseline. Scenarios, never forecasts.

Start from a preset

Your scenario

Economy

Name

Levers

Each is a change from the baseline from 2027, for the years you pick. Leave a lever at zero to keep it as in the baseline. Jump to the results

Policy rate (pp)

Held this many points above (or below) the baseline rate; the central bank's usual rule takes over when it ends.

Government spending (% of GDP)

Extra government purchases (consumption and investment) each year.

Taxes (% of GDP)

Extra tax revenue each year at today's incomes: higher rates (or lower, if negative).

Productivity growth (pp a year)

Total factor productivity grows this much faster each year.

Labour force growth (pp a year)

The labour force grows this much faster each year (migration, participation).

Tariffs and trade costs (pp)

The average tariff (or equivalent trade cost) on every import rises this many points. No retaliation.

Energy prices (%)

World prices of oil, gas and coal change by this much.

Business investment (% of GDP)

Firms invest this much more each year (on top of how investment responds by itself).

United States, 2027–2031

An illustrative scenario, not a forecast: the model's change from the IMF baseline, added to that baseline. Baseline: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2026).

Move a lever, or open a preset, to see how United States’s economy would respond. With nothing changed, the scenario is the IMF baseline.

What this model leaves out

A small model of one economy: the rest of the world doesn't react (no retaliation, no foreign slowdown), and there are no financial crises, defaults or confidence effects.
Expectations adapt to what has happened; they don't jump on announcements, so pre-announced or credible policies may work faster than shown.
Parameters are typical published estimates for advanced or emerging economies, adjusted per country where an estimate exists: the true effects are uncertain, often by half or more.
Effects are linear: twice the shock gives twice the effect, except where the policy rate hits its lower bound and for tariff revenue (which shrinks as imports fall).
The baseline is the IMF's, taken as given; the scenario shows only how the levers move the economy from it.
The budget is simplified: energy subsidies cost nothing and extra debt carries no extra interest, so debt paths are approximate.

How the macro model works, its parameters and its validation

How it works

The baseline: The IMF World Economic Outlook's paths for growth, inflation, unemployment, the budget, debt and the current account, from CK's country data. The policy rate is the latest one, held flat.
The model: A small semi-structural model of each economy: demand and the output gap, a Phillips curve for inflation, a Taylor rule for the policy rate, Okun's law for jobs, a fiscal block and potential output. Its parameters are published estimates or set within published ranges, and it runs in your browser.
The limits: The rest of the world stays put, expectations only adapt, and effects are linear. The answers are as uncertain as the estimates behind them: read them as directions and rough sizes, not predictions.

Trade shocks can come straight from the trade simulator: on a scenario’s results, send a country’s price and GDP effects here. The methodology lists the parameters, their sources and the model’s checks against published responses.