CK Intelligence

Inflation and policy

Where U.S. inflation stands, what the Treasury market implies for the years ahead, and where central banks have set their rates.

CPI inflation

3.72%

Sep 2026

Change on previous: +0.36 pp from Aug 2026
Change on a year earlier: +0.69 pp

12-month change in the index.

Core CPI inflation

2.57%

Sep 2026

Change on previous: +0.12 pp from Aug 2026
Change on a year earlier: −0.45 pp

Less food and energy.

PCE inflation

3.42%

Aug 2026

Change on previous: +0.06 pp from Jul 2026
Change on a year earlier: +0.73 pp

The Fed’s preferred measure.

Core PCE inflation

3.01%

Aug 2026

Change on previous: +0.02 pp from Jul 2026
Change on a year earlier: +0.16 pp

Less food and energy.

5-year breakeven

2.38%

Oct 19, 2026

Change on previous: +0.01 pp from Oct 16, 2026
Change on a year earlier: +0.09 pp

Federal funds rate (effective)

3.75%

Sep 2026

Change on previous: +0.12 pp from Aug 2026
Change on a year earlier: −0.47 pp

Monthly average of the effective rate, the rate banks actually lend at overnight. The policy-rate table below gives the Fed’s target-range midpoint instead.

Consumer price inflation

How much the prices U.S. consumers pay have risen over the past twelve months, on the two official measures: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal is set in. “Core” leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing most.

Grey bands: U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.

Show the figures as a table

Official statisticU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Board, via FRED · as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Board, via FRED
Period covered: Jan 1947 – Sep 2026
Source figures as of: October 16, 2026
Geography: United States
Sector: Whole economy (not a single sector)
Seasonal adjustment: Seasonally adjusted
Transformations: 12-month percentage changes calculated by CK Economics from the published price indexes
Revisions: Recalculated on each input’s latest figures.
Data status: Current

Research standards

Full series and downloads: CPI · Core CPI · PCE price index · Core PCE

Inflation expectations in Treasury prices

The inflation rate at which ordinary and inflation-protected Treasury notes would pay the same. They carry risk and liquidity premiums as well as expectations, so they are a market reading, not a survey or a forecast.

Grey bands: U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.

Show the figures as a table

Official statisticFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · as of October 19, 2026Sources & methods

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Period covered: Jan 2, 2003 – Oct 19, 2026
Source figures as of: October 19, 2026
Geography: United States
Sector: Financial Services & Capital Markets
Seasonal adjustment: Not applicable
Transformations: The three published series drawn on one chart. Daily values are drawn at each week’s last trading day; the full daily series is on the dataset’s page
Revisions: Recalculated on each input’s latest figures.
Data status: Current

Research standards

Full series and downloads: 5-year breakeven · 10-year breakeven · 5-year, 5-year forward

Central bank policy rates

The main policy rate of each economy we profile, at the end of the latest month, as compiled by the Bank for International Settlements from the central banks’ announcements. Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore are not in the BIS series; Singapore steers its exchange rate rather than an interest rate. Where a central bank sets a target range, as the Federal Reserve does, the BIS gives its midpoint.

Central bank policy rates by economy, end of the latest month
Economy	Rate	Change on the month before	As of
United StatesFederal funds target range, midpoint	3.875%	+0.250 pp	Sep 2026
Mexico	6.50%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Canada	2.25%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
China	3.00%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Euro area (European Central Bank)Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France, Ireland, Belgium	2.50%	+0.25 pp	Sep 2026
Japan	1.25%	+0.25 pp	Sep 2026
South Korea	3.00%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
United Kingdom	3.75%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Thailand	1.00%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
India	5.25%	0.00 pp	Jun 2026
Switzerland	0.00%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Malaysia	2.75%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Brazil	13.75%	−0.25 pp	Sep 2026
Australia	4.60%	+0.25 pp	Sep 2026
Argentina	29.00%	0.00 pp	Jun 2025no recent figure
Indonesia	5.75%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Russia	14.00%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026
Saudi Arabia	4.50%	+0.25 pp	Sep 2026
South Africa	7.25%	+0.25 pp	Sep 2026
Türkiye	37.00%	0.00 pp	Sep 2026

Official statisticBank for International Settlements, from central banks · as of October 16, 2026Sources & methods

Sources: Bank for International Settlements, from central banks
Period covered: Jan 1946 – Sep 2026
Source figures as of: October 16, 2026
Geography: United States; Mexico; Canada; China; Germany; Japan; South Korea; United Kingdom; Thailand; India; Switzerland; Malaysia; Brazil; Australia; Argentina; Indonesia; Russia; Saudi Arabia; South Africa; Türkiye
Sector: Whole economy (not a single sector)
Seasonal adjustment: Not applicable
Transformations: Euro-area members, which share the European Central Bank’s rate, listed once
Revisions: Recalculated on each input’s latest figures.
Data status: Varies by input: see each series

Research standards