California — Weekly Diesel Retail Price
Average retail price of No. 2 diesel fuel (all types) at service stations in California, including taxes, in US dollars per gallon, measured weekly.
Official statisticCK forecastSource figures as of October 15, 2026 · Exponential smoothing, damped trend, 6 months, 80% range of backtest errorsSources & methods
- Period covered
- Jul 3, 1995 – Oct 12, 2026
- Source figures as of
- October 15, 2026
- Geography
- California
- Sector
- Transportation, Maritime Trade & Logistics · Trucking & road
- Seasonal adjustment
- Not seasonally adjusted
- Transformations
- Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
- Forecast method
- Exponential smoothing, damped trend
- Assumptions
- Past patterns continue, with no policy change or shock; fitted to Nov 7, 2011 – Oct 12, 2026
- Horizon
- 6 months
- Interval
- 80% range of backtest errors
- Backtest
- Errors 11% smaller than a no-change forecast over the next 3 months, 9% smaller 3–6 months ahead (40 past dates)
- Estimated
- October 16, 2026
- Revisions
- Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
- Data status
- Current
- Limitations
- Seasonal swings are left in: compare a period with the same period a year earlier.
Key figures
CK estimateUS$ per gallon · calculated by CK Economics from U.S. Energy Information Administration data
- Latest · Oct 12, 2026
- 8.09
- +63.8% vs a year earlier1
- 5-year change
- +82.8%
- since Oct 11, 2021, +12.8% a year2
- 10-year change
- +188.0%
- since Oct 10, 2016, +11.2% a year2
- Record high
- 8.25
- Sep 21, 20263
- Record low
- 1.1
- Feb 22, 19993
- Where the latest ranks
- 99th pct.
- Higher than 99% of the other 1,632 observations since Jul 3, 19954
- CK forecast · Apr 12, 2027
- 8.05
- 80% range 7.12–105
- 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
- 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier; the yearly rate is the compound annual growth rate over the span.
- 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
- 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.
- 5Final period of the CK forecast, a statistical projection from the model in the methodology, with its 80% range; rounded to three significant figures.
Methodology
Each value is EIA's average retail (pump) price for No. 2 on-highway diesel, all sulfur types, in California, in US dollars per gallon including federal, state and local taxes. EIA collects prices from a sample of retail outlets every Monday at 8:00 a.m.; the period shown is that Monday. Figures are not seasonally adjusted. The series runs weekly from 3 July 1995 with no missing weeks. Values are taken as published, to three decimal places, with no averaging or other transformation. The data are read from EIA's public history table for the series. Every week was cross-checked against the same series in the EIA Open Data API (v2), and the two matched exactly. EIA may revise published figures. Projection: CK Economics statistical projection. The central path comes from exponential smoothing (ETS) on the logarithm of the series with a damped additive trend, so recent growth is carried forward but fades over time. It runs only as far ahead as backtests support: the model is refitted at past dates, its forecasts are scored against what happened, and it is shown only for horizons where its errors were at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same week a year earlier. The shaded band is the 80% range of those backtest errors. It is a conditional estimate that extrapolates past patterns: it does not model policy, tariffs, recessions or other shocks, and it is not an official forecast of the source agency.
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly California No 2 Diesel Retail Prices (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_SCA_DPG): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=W — figures as published on 15 October 2026.
The 26 projected periods are a CK forecast, not figures from the source; the methodology above describes how they are made.
All data
| Period | Value | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 8.09 | +63.8% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 8.08 | +62.6% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 8.18 | +64.2% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 8.25 | +65.4% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 8.04 | +61.7% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 7.76 | +56.6% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 7.22 | +46.9% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 7.04 | +44.5% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 6.79 | +39.3% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 6.62 | +35.4% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 6.72 | +35.8% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 6.67 | +34.6% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 6.47 | +30.4% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 6.13 | +24.2% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 6.07 | +24.1% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 6.18 | +27.0% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 6.47 | +32.2% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 6.71 | +40.4% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 6.94 | +46.4% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 7.05 | +47.9% |
| May 25, 2026 | 7.18 | +49.4% |
| May 18, 2026 | 7.22 | +49.4% |
| May 11, 2026 | 7.32 | +53.8% |
| May 4, 2026 | 7.36 | +55.7% |