{"title":"California — Weekly Diesel Retail Price","slug":"california-diesel-price","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/california-diesel-price","description":"Average retail price of No. 2 diesel fuel (all types) at service stations in California, including taxes, in US dollars per gallon, measured weekly.","unit":"US$ per gallon","frequency":"Weekly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T16:37:34.991143+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly California No 2 Diesel Retail Prices (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_SCA_DPG): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=W — figures as published on 15 October 2026.","provider":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=W","source_as_of":"2026-10-15","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"California","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=W"],"methodology":"Each value is EIA's average retail (pump) price for No. 2 on-highway diesel, all sulfur types, in California, in US dollars per gallon including federal, state and local taxes. EIA collects prices from a sample of retail outlets every Monday at 8:00 a.m.; the period shown is that Monday. Figures are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nThe series runs weekly from 3 July 1995 with no missing weeks. Values are taken as published, to three decimal places, with no averaging or other transformation.\n\nThe data are read from EIA's public history table for the series. Every week was cross-checked against the same series in the EIA Open Data API (v2), and the two matched exactly. EIA may revise published figures.\n\nProjection: CK Economics statistical projection. The central path comes from exponential smoothing (ETS) on the logarithm of the series with a damped additive trend, so recent growth is carried forward but fades over time. It runs only as far ahead as backtests support: the model is refitted at past dates, its forecasts are scored against what happened, and it is shown only for horizons where its errors were at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same week a year earlier. The shaded band is the 80% range of those backtest errors. It is a conditional estimate that extrapolates past patterns: it does not model policy, tariffs, recessions or other shocks, and it is not an official forecast of the source agency.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Oct 12, 2026. Oct 19, 2026 is not overdue until November 29, 2026, a generous allowance for a weekly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-10-12","next_period":"2026-10-19","next_expected_by":"2026-11-29","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:28:15.143524+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":{"label":"Statistical projection","disclosure_label":"CK forecast","model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","fitted_from":"2011-11-07","fitted_to":"2026-10-12","estimated_on":"2026-10-16","horizon_months":6,"horizon_years":null,"band_percent":80,"backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":0.437,"smape":4.42,"months":3,"passes":true,"origins":40,"rel_mae":0.887,"coverage":0.788,"error_hi":0.065769,"error_lo":-0.052418,"mase_naive":0.492,"mase_snaive":1.494,"smape_naive":4.99,"coverage_model":0.912},{"best":"naive","mase":0.859,"smape":8.81,"months":6,"passes":true,"origins":39,"rel_mae":0.912,"coverage":0.775,"error_hi":0.201648,"error_lo":-0.099622,"mase_naive":0.941,"mase_snaive":1.545,"smape_naive":9.75,"coverage_model":0.819},{"best":"naive","mase":1.324,"smape":13.85,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":0.96,"coverage":0.757,"error_hi":0.266081,"error_lo":-0.1743,"mase_naive":1.378,"mase_snaive":1.562,"smape_naive":14.5,"coverage_model":0.83},{"best":"naive","mase":1.833,"smape":19.37,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":0.973,"coverage":0.759,"error_hi":0.395218,"error_lo":-0.183575,"mase_naive":1.883,"mase_snaive":2.25,"smape_naive":19.95,"coverage_model":0.801},{"best":"naive","mase":2.304,"smape":23.71,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":0.979,"coverage":0.623,"error_hi":0.493808,"error_lo":-0.205811,"mase_naive":2.354,"mase_snaive":2.487,"smape_naive":24.34,"coverage_model":0.839},{"best":"naive","mase":2.979,"smape":30.67,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":0.976,"coverage":0.885,"error_hi":0.506985,"error_lo":0.12391,"mase_naive":3.052,"mase_snaive":3.366,"smape_naive":31.59,"coverage_model":0.887}],"data_to":"2026-10-12","origins":40,"withheld":null,"benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-05-18","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-08-29","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":6}},"projection_withheld":null,"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). California — Weekly Diesel Retail Price [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/california-diesel-price","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in US$ per gallon","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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