Agriculture, Food & Commodities
Wheat — Monthly Export Price (US Hard Red Winter)
The monthly export price of US hard red winter wheat at the Gulf of Mexico, a world benchmark for bread wheat, from the World Bank's Pink Sheet.
Official statisticCK forecastSource figures as of October 16, 2026 · Exponential smoothing, damped trend, 3 months, 80% range of backtest errorsSources & methods
- Sources
- World Bank
- Period covered
- Jan 1960 – Sep 2026
- Source figures as of
- October 16, 2026
- Geography
- World (benchmark market price)
- Sector
- Agriculture, Food & Commodities
- Seasonal adjustment
- Not seasonally adjusted
- Transformations
- Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures. The constant-dollar view divides by the BLS consumer price index (CPI-U)
- Forecast method
- Exponential smoothing, damped trend
- Assumptions
- Past patterns continue, with no policy change or shock; fitted to Oct 2006 – Sep 2026
- Horizon
- 3 months
- Interval
- 80% range of backtest errors
- Backtest
- Errors 5% smaller than a no-change forecast over the next 3 months (40 past dates)
- Estimated
- October 16, 2026
- Revisions
- Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
- Data status
- Current
- Limitations
- Seasonal swings are left in: compare a period with the same period a year earlier.
Key figures
CK estimateUS$ per metric ton · calculated by CK Economics from World Bank data
- Latest · Sep 2026
- 347
- +48.4% vs a year earlier1
- 5-year change
- +2.8%
- since Sep 2021, +0.6% a year2
- 10-year change
- +130.4%
- since Sep 2016, +8.7% a year2
- Record high
- 522.3
- May 20223
- Record low
- 52.2
- Oct 1969 (and 8 other periods)3
- Where the latest ranks
- 95th pct.
- Higher than 95% of the other 800 observations since Jan 19604
- CK forecast · Dec 2026
- 360
- 80% range 330–4175
- 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
- 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier; the yearly rate is the compound annual growth rate over the span.
- 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
- 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.
- 5Final period of the CK forecast, a statistical projection from the model in the methodology, with its 80% range; rounded to three significant figures.
Seasonal pattern
CK estimateEach month of 2026 and 2025 against the average and range of the same month in 2021–2025. Calculated by CK Economics from the published series.
Methodology
US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, Gulf export price; before July 2020, no. 1 hard red winter, ordinary protein, delivered to a US Gulf port for prompt or 30-day shipment. Underlying sources: Bloomberg, the US Department of Agriculture and the World Bank. The World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1960. Projection: CK Economics statistical projection. The central path comes from exponential smoothing (ETS) on the logarithm of the series with a damped additive trend, so recent growth is carried forward but fades over time. It runs only as far ahead as backtests support: the model is refitted at past dates, its forecasts are scored against what happened, and it is shown only for horizons where its errors were at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier. The shaded band is the 80% range of those backtest errors. It is a conditional estimate that extrapolates past patterns: it does not model policy, tariffs, recessions or other shocks, and it is not an official forecast of the source agency.
Source
World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, "Wheat, US HRW": https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets — figures as published on 16 October 2026.
The 3 projected periods are a CK forecast, not figures from the source; the methodology above describes how they are made.
All data
| Period | Value | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 347 | +48.4% |
| Aug 2026 | 330 | +42.8% |
| Jul 2026 | 310 | +31.9% |
| Jun 2026 | 286 | +19.1% |
| May 2026 | 303 | +27.8% |
| Apr 2026 | 282 | +13.0% |
| Mar 2026 | 276 | +8.1% |
| Feb 2026 | 257.6 | −2.6% |
| Jan 2026 | 249.9 | −1.7% |
| Dec 2025 | 242.8 | −3.7% |
| Nov 2025 | 245.9 | −3.1% |
| Oct 2025 | 230.8 | −15.4% |
| Sep 2025 | 233.8 | −13.3% |
| Aug 2025 | 231.1 | −7.9% |
| Jul 2025 | 235 | −9.7% |
| Jun 2025 | 240.1 | −9.6% |
| May 2025 | 237 | −18.1% |
| Apr 2025 | 249.6 | −8.3% |
| Mar 2025 | 255.4 | −7.1% |
| Feb 2025 | 264.6 | −5.0% |
| Jan 2025 | 254.1 | −10.5% |
| Dec 2024 | 252.2 | −13.4% |
| Nov 2024 | 253.8 | −10.5% |
| Oct 2024 | 272.9 | −8.5% |