{"title":"Wheat — Monthly Export Price (US Hard Red Winter)","slug":"wheat-price","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/wheat-price","description":"The monthly export price of US hard red winter wheat at the Gulf of Mexico, a world benchmark for bread wheat, from the World Bank's Pink Sheet.","unit":"US$ per metric ton","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:51:40.578961+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, \"Wheat, US HRW\": https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets — figures as published on 16 October 2026.","provider":"World Bank","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"World (benchmark market price)","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"methodology":"US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, Gulf export price; before July 2020, no. 1 hard red winter, ordinary protein, delivered to a US Gulf port for prompt or 30-day shipment. Underlying sources: Bloomberg, the US Department of Agriculture and the World Bank.\n\nThe World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1960.\n\nProjection: CK Economics statistical projection. The central path comes from exponential smoothing (ETS) on the logarithm of the series with a damped additive trend, so recent growth is carried forward but fades over time. It runs only as far ahead as backtests support: the model is refitted at past dates, its forecasts are scored against what happened, and it is shown only for horizons where its errors were at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier. The shaded band is the 80% range of those backtest errors. It is a conditional estimate that extrapolates past patterns: it does not model policy, tariffs, recessions or other shocks, and it is not an official forecast of the source agency.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:30:04.241376+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":{"label":"Statistical projection","disclosure_label":"CK forecast","model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","fitted_from":"2006-10-01","fitted_to":"2026-09-01","estimated_on":"2026-10-16","horizon_months":3,"horizon_years":null,"band_percent":80,"backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":0.524,"smape":5.94,"months":3,"passes":true,"origins":40,"rel_mae":0.949,"coverage":0.783,"error_hi":0.11524,"error_lo":-0.071668,"mase_naive":0.553,"mase_snaive":1.785,"smape_naive":6.19,"coverage_model":0.917},{"best":"naive","mase":1.045,"smape":11.18,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":0.981,"coverage":0.786,"error_hi":0.214231,"error_lo":-0.116831,"mase_naive":1.064,"mase_snaive":1.813,"smape_naive":11.39,"coverage_model":0.863},{"best":"naive","mase":1.586,"smape":16.64,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":0.98,"coverage":0.716,"error_hi":0.313195,"error_lo":-0.195555,"mase_naive":1.618,"mase_snaive":1.844,"smape_naive":17.1,"coverage_model":0.878},{"best":"naive","mase":2.647,"smape":26.76,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":0.999,"coverage":0.545,"error_hi":0.463651,"error_lo":-0.346835,"mase_naive":2.649,"mase_snaive":3.015,"smape_naive":27.11,"coverage_model":0.795},{"best":"naive","mase":3.72,"smape":37.2,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":1.017,"coverage":0.313,"error_hi":0.679302,"error_lo":-0.475102,"mase_naive":3.656,"mase_snaive":3.701,"smape_naive":37.02,"coverage_model":0.747},{"best":"naive","mase":4.031,"smape":43.07,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":1.006,"coverage":0,"error_hi":0.777679,"error_lo":-0.128283,"mase_naive":4.007,"mase_snaive":4.064,"smape_naive":42.84,"coverage_model":0.754}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":null,"benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-06-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-09-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":3}},"projection_withheld":null,"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). Wheat — Monthly Export Price (US Hard Red Winter) [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/wheat-price","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in US$ per metric ton","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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