North America
United States
Full profile
GDP of $30.86 tn in 2025, real growth of 2.3% and inflation of 2.7%, by the IMF’s figures.
Overview
The United States in figures
The latest figure each source reports. Annual figures come from one international source on one definition for every country, so they compare across this site’s country pages.
Output
IMF World Economic Outlook and World Bank, annual
Prices and jobs
IMF and World Bank (ILO modelled estimates), annual
Public finances and the external account
IMF and World Bank, annual, % of GDP
Latest readings
OECD and national statistics, quarterly and monthly
Sectors
What the economy produces
Each sector’s value added as a share of GDP, and how fast it grew in real terms. World Bank, annual.
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing0.9%
1.2% in 2011 (−0.3 pp)
- Industry, including construction17.6%
19.4% in 2011 (−1.8 pp)
- of which Manufacturing10.5%
11.9% in 2011 (−1.4 pp)
- Services76.3%
75.9% in 2011 (+0.4 pp)
Outlook
Where the IMF and CK see it going
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projections next to the last two years it reports, and CK Economics’ own backtested forecasts, labelled as ours, in a table of their own.
World Economic Outlook, October 2026. Shaded columns from 2026 on are the IMF’s projections, not CK Economics’.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026IMF forecast → | 2027 (IMF forecast) | 2028 (IMF forecast) | 2029 (IMF forecast) | 2030 (IMF forecast) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth, % | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | |
| Inflation, annual average, % | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| Unemployment rate, % | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |
| Government balance, % of GDP | −7.8 | −7.1 | −8.5 | −7.8 | −8.1 | −8.3 | −8.4 | |
| Government gross debt, % of GDP | 122.3 | 124.4 | 126.8 | 128.7 | 132.3 | 136.4 | 140.7 | |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | −4.1 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.5 | −3.5 |
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, via the IMF DataMapper. Years before 2026 are the IMF’s reported series, which for some countries include staff estimates.
A baseline forecast, not a scenario: an ensemble of statistical models and the IMF’s forecast, published only where its backtest beat naive. Ranges are 80%.
| Indicator | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth, % | 2.31.8 to 3.7 | 2.3−0.2 to 4.1 | 2.10.3 to 4.3 |
| Inflation, % | 3.63.2 to 3.9 | 2.80.8 to 4.6 | 2.20.2 to 4.7 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 4.23.4 to 4.9 | 4.02.2 to 5.8 | – |
CK Economics, from the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026. Scorecards and past forecasts →
Trade
U.S. trade with its partners
U.S. Census Bureau goods trade between the United States and its partners, by month, U.S. port and product.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s figures are U.S. trade with each partner, so they sit on the partners’ pages. See every partner ranked by trade with the United States, or rank them by imports, exports or balance.
Data explorer
Every series, to explore and download
Pick a series to chart it over any range, as levels or changes, set it against other countries on the same definition, and download it with its source.
United States: Real GDP growth
Annual percentage change in gross domestic product at constant prices.
Official statisticIMF forecastSource figures as of October 8, 2026 · International Monetary Fund’s own, as published, To 2031Sources & methods
- Sources
- International Monetary Fund
- Period covered
- 1980 – 2025
- Source figures as of
- October 8, 2026
- Geography
- United States
- Sector
- Whole economy (not a single sector)
- Seasonal adjustment
- Not applicable
- Transformations
- None: figures as published
- Forecast method
- International Monetary Fund’s own, as published
- Assumptions
- International Monetary Fund’s own
- Horizon
- To 2031
- Interval
- Not recorded
- Backtest
- See the publisher
- Revisions
- Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
- Data status
- Current
Download and source
- Every value (CSV) · JSON
- Full series page: methodology, revisions and citation →
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (WEO October 2026). Source series NGDP_RPCH. Licence: IMF terms of use (https://www.imf.org/en/About/copyright-and-terms). At the source ↗
Definitions
Read the figures alike
Every figure keeps its source’s definition; where two sound alike but are measured differently, the difference is here.
- GDP in dollars
- The IMF converts GDP at current prices at each year’s market exchange rate, so the dollar figure moves with the currency. GDP per person at purchasing power parity converts at the cost of the same basket of goods in every country instead, which suits comparisons of living standards. The World Bank’s GDP at constant 2015 prices takes price changes out, so it measures volume: use it, or the growth rates, to see how much output changed.
- Growth
- Annual growth (IMF) compares a whole year with the year before. The OECD’s quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted and compare a quarter with the previous quarter (not annualized) or with the same quarter a year earlier. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports quarterly growth at an annualized rate, roughly four times the quarter-on-quarter change. The three need not agree in any one period.
- Inflation
- The IMF’s annual inflation is the change in the average consumer price level over a whole year. The monthly figure compares one month with the same month a year earlier, so it turns sooner and swings more. Both use the national consumer price index.
- Unemployment
- The IMF’s annual unemployment rate follows each country’s national definition (age limits, what counts as looking for work), so levels are not strictly comparable across countries. The OECD’s monthly rates follow the ILO definition for most members. The U.S. monthly rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey measure. Labour force participation and employment to population are ILO modelled estimates for everyone aged 15 and over, on one definition for every country; national figures, often for ages 16 to 64, are higher.
- Policy rates
- The federal funds rate in the overview is the effective rate: the monthly average of the daily rate banks lend to each other overnight, as the Federal Reserve Board reports it. The central bank policy rate in the explorer is the Bank for International Settlements’ series: for the United States, the midpoint of the Federal Reserve’s target range at the end of the month. So the two need not match.
- Sectors
- Sector shares are value added as a percentage of GDP. They don’t add up to 100%: GDP also includes taxes less subsidies on products. Manufacturing is part of industry, which also covers mining, construction and utilities. Sector growth is the change in real value added at constant local-currency prices.
- Latest values and forecasts
- Each latest figure is the most recent period the source does not label a projection; for some countries the IMF’s latest years are its staff estimates. Values the IMF projects are labelled “IMF forecast” wherever they appear. They are the IMF’s, not CK Economics’.