Los Angeles — Monthly Mean Sea Level
Monthly mean sea level at the NOAA tide gauge in the Outer Harbor at San Pedro, Port of Los Angeles (station 9410660). Values are in millimeters above or below the station's mean sea level datum for the 1983–2001 tidal epoch.
ArchiveFrom before CK Economics turned to global trade on October 16, 2026. Its figures are still collected and it stays at this address, but it is no longer part of our trade coverage.
Official statisticCK forecastSource figures as of October 10, 2026 · NOAA station trend + seasonal cycle, 5 years, 80% range of backtest errorsSources & methods
- Period covered
- Dec 1923 – Sep 2026
- Source figures as of
- October 10, 2026
- Geography
- Los Angeles tide gauge, Port of Los Angeles (NOAA station 9410660)
- Sector
- Climate Economics & Sustainability (archived)
- Seasonal adjustment
- Not seasonally adjusted
- Transformations
- Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
- Forecast method
- NOAA station trend + seasonal cycle
- Assumptions
- Past patterns continue, with no policy change or shock; fitted to Dec 1923 – Sep 2026
- Horizon
- 5 years
- Interval
- 80% range of backtest errors
- Backtest
- Errors 48% smaller than repeating the same period a year earlier over the next 3 months, 9% smaller 3–5 years ahead (40 past dates)
- Estimated
- October 16, 2026
- Revisions
- Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
- Data status
- Current
- Limitations
- Seasonal swings are left in: compare a period with the same period a year earlier.
Key figures
CK estimateMillimeters · calculated by CK Economics from NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services data
- Latest · Sep 2026
- 297
- +178 mm vs a year earlier1
- 5-year change
- +207 mm
- since Sep 20212
- 10-year change
- +178 mm
- since Sep 20162
- Record high
- 297
- Sep 20263
- Record low
- −211
- Mar 19713
- Where the latest ranks
- 100th pct.
- Higher than 100% of the other 1,233 observations since Dec 19234
- CK forecast · Sep 2031
- 121
- 80% range 86–1865
- 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
- 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier.
- 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
- 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.
- 5Final period of the CK forecast, a statistical projection from the model in the methodology, with its 80% range; rounded to three significant figures.
Seasonal pattern
CK estimateEach month of 2026 and 2025 against the average and range of the same month in 2021–2025. Calculated by CK Economics from the published series.
Methodology
Each value is NOAA's monthly mean sea level (MSL) at the Los Angeles tide gauge, the average of the month's hourly water heights, converted from meters to millimeters. Values are relative to the station's MSL datum for the 1983–2001 National Tidal Datum Epoch, so zero is the average sea level over those years. The series is not seasonally adjusted; NOAA's average seasonal cycle puts local sea level about 75 mm above the annual mean in September and about 79 mm below it in April. The record runs from December 1923 to September 2026 with no missing months. NOAA marks seven months as inferred (July 1978 and February–July 1979), meaning they were estimated from incomplete data rather than fully observed. These months are kept as published. The latest month may be based on preliminary data and can change after NOAA's verification. NOAA's long-term relative sea level trend for this station is 1.07 ± 0.10 mm per year (95% confidence) over December 1923 to December 2025, about 0.42 inches per decade or 10.7 cm per century. This trend combines ocean rise with any vertical land motion at the gauge. Strong El Niño years show up as peaks, such as late 1997, autumn 2015 and 2026. We cross-checked every overlapping month (December 1923 to August 2026) against NOAA's Sea Level Trends monthly means and found identical values. September 2026 was confirmed by averaging that month's 720 hourly water heights from the same API. NOAA may revise figures. Projection: CK Economics statistical projection. The central path comes from NOAA's published linear trend for the station (1.07 mm per year), with the average monthly seasonal cycle and second-order autoregressive errors around it, which capture multi-month anomalies such as El Niño. It extends the historical trend only; it does not include the acceleration in the NOAA 2022 interagency sea level rise scenarios. NOAA's trend is estimated from the whole record, including the years the backtest scores, which flatters its scores slightly. It runs only as far ahead as backtests support: the model is refitted at past dates, its forecasts are scored against what happened, and it is shown only for horizons where its errors were at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier. The shaded band is the 80% range of those backtest errors. It is a conditional estimate that extrapolates past patterns: it does not model policy, tariffs, recessions or other shocks, and it is not an official forecast of the source agency.
Source
NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), Tides & Currents Data API, monthly mean water levels (station 9410660, Los Angeles): https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?product=monthly_mean&station=9410660&datum=MSL&units=metric — figures as published on 10 October 2026.
The 60 projected periods are a CK forecast, not figures from the source; the methodology above describes how they are made.
All data
| Period | Value | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 297 | +178 mm |
| Aug 2026 | 209 | +98 mm |
| Jul 2026 | 168 | +97 mm |
| Jun 2026 | 116 | +49 mm |
| May 2026 | 49 | +24 mm |
| Apr 2026 | 51 | +99 mm |
| Mar 2026 | 45 | +99 mm |
| Feb 2026 | 53 | +102 mm |
| Jan 2026 | 69 | +86 mm |
| Dec 2025 | 95 | +97 mm |
| Nov 2025 | 100 | +101 mm |
| Oct 2025 | 98 | +24 mm |
| Sep 2025 | 119 | +21 mm |
| Aug 2025 | 111 | +25 mm |
| Jul 2025 | 71 | +13 mm |
| Jun 2025 | 67 | +28 mm |
| May 2025 | 25 | +57 mm |
| Apr 2025 | −48 | +1 mm |
| Mar 2025 | −54 | −27 mm |
| Feb 2025 | −49 | −90 mm |
| Jan 2025 | −17 | −65 mm |
| Dec 2024 | −2 | −140 mm |
| Nov 2024 | −1 | −139 mm |
| Oct 2024 | 74 | −98 mm |