Manufacturing & Industrial Production
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index — Monthly Reading
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, which combines shipping and air freight costs with manufacturing survey data from seven major economies into one gauge of global supply chain strain. Values are standard deviations from the index's historical average; zero is normal and positive readings mean above-average pressure.
Official statisticSource figures as of October 10, 2026Sources & methods
- Period covered
- Jan 1998 – Sep 2026
- Source figures as of
- October 10, 2026
- Geography
- Global
- Sector
- Manufacturing & Industrial Production
- Seasonal adjustment
- Not seasonally adjusted
- Transformations
- Views other than the level (changes, averages, volatility) are calculated by CK Economics from these figures
- Revisions
- Replaced with the source’s latest figures whenever it revises them.
- Data status
- Current
- Limitations
- Seasonal swings are left in: compare a period with the same period a year earlier.
No projectionIn backtests at 40 past dates, a statistical projection (autoregression) was not clearly better than a no-change forecast: its errors over the next 3 months were 17% larger, short of the 5% improvement needed, so none is shown. How we decide
Key figures
CK estimateStandard deviations from average · calculated by CK Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York data
- Latest · Sep 2026
- 1.28
- +1.3 sd vs a year earlier1
- 5-year change
- −2.2 sd
- since Sep 20212
- 10-year change
- +1.6 sd
- since Sep 20162
- Record high
- 4.43
- Dec 20213
- Record low
- −1.56
- May 20233
- Where the latest ranks
- 90th pct.
- Higher than 90% of the other 344 observations since Jan 19984
- 1Latest observation against the observation one year earlier (for weekly data, the nearest within three days).
- 2Latest observation against the observation five and ten years earlier.
- 3Highest and lowest published observations across the full history shown.
- 4Share of the other published observations that are lower than the latest one, rounded down.
Methodology
The GSCPI is a principal-component index built by the New York Fed from global transportation costs (the Baltic Dry Index, the Harpex container-ship charter index, and BLS air freight price indices for US imports and exports) and supply-chain components of manufacturing PMIs (delivery times, backlogs and purchased stocks) for the euro area, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK and the US, with demand effects stripped out. It is expressed in standard deviations from its historical average and is not seasonally adjusted. It is not an official estimate of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System. The NY Fed re-estimates the entire history every month when it publishes a new reading, so past values can shift slightly from one release to the next, and the latest months are revised as imputed inputs are replaced by realized data. This series is the most recent vintage only (the October 2026 release, covering data through September 2026). Values are rounded to 2 decimal places, the precision the NY Fed uses on its interactive and in its commentary; the downloadable workbook carries more digits. The series begins in January 1998, matching the NY Fed's official download. Figures come from the CSV behind the NY Fed's GSCPI interactive, where we take the newest release column. We checked the full series against the official gscpi_data.xlsx workbook (all 345 months agree to 2 decimals, e.g. the December 2021 peak of 4.43) and checked the latest reading against the GSCPI page text, which reports 1.28 for September 2026. Projection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (an autoregression) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.
Source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi — figures as published on 10 October 2026. © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
All data
345 observations, newest first · Standard deviations from average
| Period | Value | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 1.28 | +1.32 sd |
| Aug 2026 | 1.2 | +1.28 sd |
| Jul 2026 | 0.93 | +0.9 sd |
| Jun 2026 | 1.21 | +1.22 sd |
| May 2026 | 1.81 | +1.63 sd |
| Apr 2026 | 1.78 | +2.12 sd |
| Mar 2026 | 0.63 | +0.88 sd |
| Feb 2026 | 0.49 | +0.61 sd |
| Jan 2026 | 0.36 | +0.62 sd |
| Dec 2025 | 0.47 | +0.83 sd |
| Nov 2025 | −0.21 | +0.16 sd |
| Oct 2025 | −0.15 | +0.22 sd |
| Sep 2025 | −0.04 | −0.17 sd |
| Aug 2025 | −0.08 | −0.28 sd |
| Jul 2025 | 0.03 | +0.07 sd |
| Jun 2025 | −0.01 | +0.29 sd |
| May 2025 | 0.18 | +0.77 sd |
| Apr 2025 | −0.34 | +0.63 sd |
| Mar 2025 | −0.25 | +0.13 sd |
| Feb 2025 | −0.12 | +0.06 sd |
| Jan 2025 | −0.26 | +0.03 sd |
| Dec 2024 | −0.36 | −0.23 sd |
| Nov 2024 | −0.37 | −0.57 sd |
| Oct 2024 | −0.37 | 0 sd |