{"title":"U.S. Recession Probability — New York Fed Yield-Curve Model","slug":"us-recession-probability-yield-curve","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/us-recession-probability-yield-curve","description":"The New York Fed's estimate, from the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, of the probability of a U.S. recession twelve months ahead.","unit":"Percent probability","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T20:59:02.725785+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator, probability of U.S. recession predicted by the Treasury spread (allmonth.xls): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq — figures as published on 16 October 2026. © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.","provider":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York","source_url":"https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"not_applicable","geography":"United States","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq"],"methodology":"The New York Fed's probit model (Estrella and Trubin, 2006) turns the monthly average spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate (on a bond-equivalent basis) into the probability that the U.S. is in recession twelve months later. The figures are the New York Fed's own, read from the workbook it publishes with the model, in percent.\n\nThe New York Fed dates each probability by the month it is about; CK Economics dates it by the month of the spread it comes from, the month it was made. So the value for September 2026 is the probability, given September 2026's spread, of a recession in September 2027, and the series never runs into the future. Each month's figure is checked against the New York Fed's published model coefficients.\n\nThe probability is a model's reading of one indicator, not a forecast by CK Economics, and it has given false alarms as well as warnings: the yield curve inverted for much of 2022–24 without a recession following within that time. It is shown as general economic information, not investment advice.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:28:15.143524+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":null,"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). U.S. Recession Probability — New York Fed Yield-Curve Model [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/us-recession-probability-yield-curve","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in Percent probability","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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