{"title":"Urea Fertilizer — Monthly Price","slug":"urea-price","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/urea-price","description":"The monthly price of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, from the World Bank's Pink Sheet.","unit":"US$ per metric ton","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:51:37.714182+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, \"Urea\": https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets — figures as published on 16 October 2026.","provider":"World Bank","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"World (benchmark market price)","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"methodology":"Prilled urea, spot price free on board (f.o.b.) the Middle East from March 2022; before that, f.o.b. the Black Sea (Ukraine). Underlying sources: Bloomberg (Green Markets) and the World Bank.\n\nThe World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1960.\n\nProjection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (exponential smoothing with a damped trend) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:30:04.241376+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":{"model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","tested_on":"2026-10-16","backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":1.01,"smape":12.17,"months":3,"passes":false,"origins":40,"rel_mae":1.003,"coverage":0.783,"error_hi":0.190716,"error_lo":-0.15481,"mase_naive":1.007,"mase_snaive":2.524,"smape_naive":12.15,"coverage_model":0.742},{"best":"naive","mase":1.873,"smape":21.54,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":1.004,"coverage":0.761,"error_hi":0.352833,"error_lo":-0.27234,"mase_naive":1.865,"mase_snaive":2.602,"smape_naive":21.45,"coverage_model":0.735},{"best":"naive","mase":2.524,"smape":27.71,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":1.004,"coverage":0.707,"error_hi":0.577621,"error_lo":-0.379682,"mase_naive":2.514,"mase_snaive":2.764,"smape_naive":27.59,"coverage_model":0.694},{"best":"naive","mase":3.582,"smape":39.22,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":1.004,"coverage":0.619,"error_hi":0.889185,"error_lo":-0.663859,"mase_naive":3.567,"mase_snaive":3.693,"smape_naive":39.08,"coverage_model":0.672},{"best":"seasonal_naive","mase":4.065,"smape":43.7,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":1.023,"coverage":0.523,"error_hi":1.074783,"error_lo":-0.579637,"mase_naive":4.046,"mase_snaive":3.972,"smape_naive":44.28,"coverage_model":0.71},{"best":"naive","mase":4.275,"smape":50.37,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":0.999,"coverage":0.521,"error_hi":1.158651,"error_lo":0.063234,"mase_naive":4.28,"mase_snaive":4.562,"smape_naive":50.46,"coverage_model":0.772}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":"no_skill","benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-06-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-09-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":0}},"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). Urea Fertilizer — Monthly Price [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/urea-price","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in US$ per metric ton","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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