{"title":"Rice — Monthly Export Price (Thai 5% Broken)","slug":"rice-price","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/rice-price","description":"The monthly export price of Thai white rice, the main benchmark for the world rice trade, from the World Bank's Pink Sheet.","unit":"US$ per metric ton","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:51:16.912946+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, \"Rice, Thai 5%\": https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets — figures as published on 16 October 2026.","provider":"World Bank","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"World (benchmark market price)","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"methodology":"Thai white rice, 5% broken, milled, an indicative price from weekly surveys of export transactions, government standard, free on board (f.o.b.) Bangkok. Underlying sources: Bloomberg, the US Department of Agriculture and the World Bank.\n\nThe World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1960.\n\nProjection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (exponential smoothing with a damped trend) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:30:04.241376+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":{"model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","tested_on":"2026-10-16","backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":0.522,"smape":6.41,"months":3,"passes":false,"origins":40,"rel_mae":1.084,"coverage":0.775,"error_hi":0.083452,"error_lo":-0.102179,"mase_naive":0.481,"mase_snaive":1.248,"smape_naive":5.94,"coverage_model":0.725},{"best":"naive","mase":0.871,"smape":10.59,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":1.085,"coverage":0.752,"error_hi":0.14145,"error_lo":-0.204741,"mase_naive":0.803,"mase_snaive":1.281,"smape_naive":9.87,"coverage_model":0.658},{"best":"naive","mase":1.318,"smape":15.66,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":1.132,"coverage":0.748,"error_hi":0.21304,"error_lo":-0.321745,"mase_naive":1.165,"mase_snaive":1.324,"smape_naive":13.91,"coverage_model":0.653},{"best":"seasonal_naive","mase":1.99,"smape":23.2,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":1.269,"coverage":0.725,"error_hi":0.327898,"error_lo":-0.427757,"mase_naive":1.699,"mase_snaive":1.568,"smape_naive":18.6,"coverage_model":0.563},{"best":"seasonal_naive","mase":1.693,"smape":20.1,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":1.517,"coverage":0.761,"error_hi":0.359025,"error_lo":-0.32287,"mase_naive":1.323,"mase_snaive":1.116,"smape_naive":13.48,"coverage_model":0.799},{"best":"naive","mase":1.559,"smape":18.76,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":1.091,"coverage":0.562,"error_hi":0.360301,"error_lo":-0.196566,"mase_naive":1.429,"mase_snaive":1.591,"smape_naive":17.03,"coverage_model":0.94}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":"no_skill","benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-06-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-09-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":0}},"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). Rice — Monthly Export Price (Thai 5% Broken) [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/rice-price","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in US$ per metric ton","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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