{"title":"Refined Products Pipelines — Monthly Producer Price Index","slug":"refined-products-pipeline-producer-price-index","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/refined-products-pipeline-producer-price-index","description":"What US pipelines charge to move gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined products: the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products.","unit":"Index (Jun 1986=100)","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-17T17:54:35.34082+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry (PCU486910486910), not seasonally adjusted, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PCU486910486910 and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU486910486910 — figures as published on 17 October 2026.","provider":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","source_url":"https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PCU486910486910","source_as_of":"2026-10-17","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"United States","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PCU486910486910","https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU486910486910"],"methodology":"The index covers pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products (NAICS 486910). Most of these rates are tariffs filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, so the index tends to move in annual steps.\n\nA producer price index measures the change over time in the prices that domestic producers receive for their output, here what carriers charge to move freight. BLS publishes it about two weeks after the month ends and revises the latest four months, which are marked preliminary, once more price reports arrive. Values come from the FRED copy of the BLS series and are cross-checked against the BLS Public Data API for the latest two years. Index levels are not seasonally adjusted. The base month, Jun 1986, equals 100.\n\nProjection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (exponential smoothing with a damped trend) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.","quality":{"status":"provisional","label":"Provisional","explanation":"The source marks figures from Jun 2026 on as preliminary; they are likely to be revised.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":"2026-06-01","revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:26:49.687402+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":{"model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","tested_on":"2026-10-17","backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":0.447,"smape":0.71,"months":3,"passes":false,"origins":40,"rel_mae":1.189,"coverage":0.8,"error_hi":0.010806,"error_lo":-0.005151,"mase_naive":0.376,"mase_snaive":2.028,"smape_naive":0.6,"coverage_model":0.908},{"best":"naive","mase":0.936,"smape":1.48,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":1.008,"coverage":0.769,"error_hi":0.033118,"error_lo":-0.011333,"mase_naive":0.928,"mase_snaive":2.114,"smape_naive":1.47,"coverage_model":0.855},{"best":"naive","mase":1.468,"smape":2.28,"months":12,"passes":true,"origins":37,"rel_mae":0.811,"coverage":0.73,"error_hi":0.070583,"error_lo":-0.012698,"mase_naive":1.811,"mase_snaive":2.256,"smape_naive":2.84,"coverage_model":0.766},{"best":"naive","mase":2.808,"smape":4.25,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":0.737,"coverage":0.611,"error_hi":0.089955,"error_lo":-0.014692,"mase_naive":3.811,"mase_snaive":4.812,"smape_naive":5.88,"coverage_model":0.604},{"best":"naive","mase":5.115,"smape":7.61,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":0.75,"coverage":0.609,"error_hi":0.16168,"error_lo":0.00254,"mase_naive":6.819,"mase_snaive":7.713,"smape_naive":10.35,"coverage_model":0.411},{"best":"naive","mase":8.046,"smape":11.82,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":0.776,"coverage":0.5,"error_hi":0.188125,"error_lo":0.050831,"mase_naive":10.364,"mase_snaive":10.908,"smape_naive":15.55,"coverage_model":0.337}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":"no_skill","benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-05-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-08-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":0}},"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). Refined Products Pipelines — Monthly Producer Price Index [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/refined-products-pipeline-producer-price-index","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in Index (Jun 1986=100)","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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