{"title":"Iron Ore — Monthly Price","slug":"iron-ore-price","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/iron-ore-price","description":"The monthly price of iron ore delivered to China, the world's largest buyer, from the World Bank's Pink Sheet.","unit":"US$ per dry metric ton","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:50:59.890569+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, \"Iron ore, cfr spot\": https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets — figures as published on 16 October 2026.","provider":"World Bank","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"World (benchmark market price)","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"methodology":"Iron ore fines of any origin, 62% iron, spot price delivered to China (cost and freight, c.f.r.) from December 2008; 63.5% iron from 2006 to November 2008. Earlier years are annual contract prices for Brazilian ore sold to Europe, so the series is not one market throughout. Underlying sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream and the World Bank.\n\nThe World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1960.\n\nProjection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (exponential smoothing with a damped trend) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:30:04.241376+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":{"model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","tested_on":"2026-10-16","backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":1.005,"smape":10.5,"months":3,"passes":false,"origins":40,"rel_mae":1.022,"coverage":0.775,"error_hi":0.17804,"error_lo":-0.177795,"mase_naive":0.983,"mase_snaive":2.049,"smape_naive":10.27,"coverage_model":0.817},{"best":"naive","mase":1.858,"smape":18.64,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":1.109,"coverage":0.769,"error_hi":0.320343,"error_lo":-0.310796,"mase_naive":1.675,"mase_snaive":2.062,"smape_naive":16.65,"coverage_model":0.692},{"best":"naive","mase":2.298,"smape":22.12,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":1.182,"coverage":0.779,"error_hi":0.383814,"error_lo":-0.383236,"mase_naive":1.944,"mase_snaive":2.081,"smape_naive":18.74,"coverage_model":0.721},{"best":"naive","mase":3.129,"smape":29.56,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":1.164,"coverage":0.652,"error_hi":0.549739,"error_lo":-0.395159,"mase_naive":2.688,"mase_snaive":2.938,"smape_naive":25.74,"coverage_model":0.763},{"best":"naive","mase":3.779,"smape":34.86,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":1.12,"coverage":0.325,"error_hi":0.701457,"error_lo":-0.439354,"mase_naive":3.374,"mase_snaive":3.687,"smape_naive":31.76,"coverage_model":0.79},{"best":"naive","mase":4.919,"smape":44.71,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":1.061,"coverage":0.5,"error_hi":0.831523,"error_lo":-0.592786,"mase_naive":4.635,"mase_snaive":4.643,"smape_naive":43.41,"coverage_model":0.76}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":"no_skill","benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-06-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-09-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":0}},"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). Iron Ore — Monthly Price [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/iron-ore-price","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in US$ per dry metric ton","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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