{"title":"European Natural Gas — Monthly Price","slug":"european-natural-gas-price","url":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/european-natural-gas-price","description":"The monthly price of natural gas in Europe, the Dutch TTF hub price since 2015, from the World Bank's Pink Sheet.","unit":"US$ per million Btu","frequency":"Monthly","updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:50:56.986995+00:00","publisher":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics","source":"World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, \"Natural gas, Europe\": https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets — figures as published on 16 October 2026.","provider":"World Bank","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","source_as_of":"2026-10-16","seasonal_adjustment":"not_seasonally_adjusted","geography":"World (benchmark market price)","is_flow":false,"source_urls":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"methodology":"The Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub price from April 2015. From April 2010 to March 2015, an average of import border prices with a spot price component, including the UK; from June 2000 to March 2010, border prices excluding the UK. Underlying sources: Bloomberg, World Gas Intelligence and the World Bank.\n\nThe World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1960.\n\nProjection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (exponential smoothing with a damped trend) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:30:04.241376+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":{"model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","tested_on":"2026-10-16","backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":3.339,"smape":22.19,"months":3,"passes":false,"origins":40,"rel_mae":1.061,"coverage":0.783,"error_hi":0.325531,"error_lo":-0.430345,"mase_naive":3.147,"mase_snaive":6.915,"smape_naive":22.4,"coverage_model":0.55},{"best":"naive","mase":4.982,"smape":36.92,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":1.072,"coverage":0.786,"error_hi":0.606595,"error_lo":-0.660193,"mase_naive":4.648,"mase_snaive":7.472,"smape_naive":36.55,"coverage_model":0.556},{"best":"naive","mase":7.779,"smape":48.92,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":1.067,"coverage":0.73,"error_hi":0.869925,"error_lo":-0.955228,"mase_naive":7.29,"mase_snaive":8.3,"smape_naive":49.83,"coverage_model":0.509},{"best":"seasonal_naive","mase":15.618,"smape":79.06,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":1.283,"coverage":0.611,"error_hi":1.594306,"error_lo":-1.621543,"mase_naive":12.474,"mase_snaive":12.177,"smape_naive":73.67,"coverage_model":0.379},{"best":"seasonal_naive","mase":19.027,"smape":86.52,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":1.407,"coverage":0.552,"error_hi":2.30519,"error_lo":-1.685952,"mase_naive":14.8,"mase_snaive":13.526,"smape_naive":77.75,"coverage_model":0.451},{"best":"naive","mase":17.526,"smape":88.43,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":1.114,"coverage":0.167,"error_hi":2.032792,"error_lo":-0.383879,"mase_naive":15.736,"mase_snaive":15.861,"smape_naive":87.69,"coverage_model":0.442}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":"no_skill","benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-06-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-09-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":0}},"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). European Natural Gas — Monthly Price [Data set]. https://www.ckeconomics.com/data/european-natural-gas-price","fields":{"period":"Start date of the period (YYYY-MM-DD)","value":"Observation or projection, in US$ per million Btu","is_forecast":"true for CK Economics projections, false for published observations","lower":"Lower bound of the projection range (projections only)","upper":"Upper bound of the projection range (projections 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