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Underlying sources: Bloomberg (Green Markets) and the World Bank.\n\nThe World Bank's Pink Sheet reports monthly average prices in nominal US dollars, not adjusted for inflation (the chart's constant-dollar option can adjust them). The World Bank compiles them from the market sources it names for each commodity and updates the workbook early each month; recent months can be revised. The World Bank publishes the data under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. The series runs from January 1967.\n\nProjection: none. CK Economics backtests a statistical projection of this series (exponential smoothing with a damped trend) by refitting it at past dates and scoring its forecasts against what happened. Its errors over the next three months were not at least 5% smaller than those of the better of a no-change forecast and repeating the same month a year earlier, so no projection is shown.","quality":{"status":"current","label":"Current","explanation":"The latest figures we have collected are for Sep 2026. Oct 2026 is not overdue until February 4, 2027, a generous allowance for a monthly series until we have timed this source’s releases.","last_period":"2026-09-01","next_period":"2026-10-01","next_expected_by":"2027-02-04","provisional_from":null,"revisions_last_30_days":0,"last_revised_at":null,"source_checked_at":"2026-10-19T22:30:04.241376+00:00","definitions":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/methodology#data-status"},"projection":null,"projection_withheld":{"model":"ets_log","model_name":"Exponential smoothing, damped trend","tested_on":"2026-10-16","backtest":{"errors":"log","margin":0.05,"method":"rolling-origin-v2","buckets":[{"best":"naive","mase":0.645,"smape":7.93,"months":3,"passes":false,"origins":40,"rel_mae":1.12,"coverage":0.767,"error_hi":0.12534,"error_lo":-0.109272,"mase_naive":0.576,"mase_snaive":1.801,"smape_naive":7.44,"coverage_model":0.842},{"best":"naive","mase":1.234,"smape":14.47,"months":6,"passes":false,"origins":39,"rel_mae":1.033,"coverage":0.761,"error_hi":0.249566,"error_lo":-0.206525,"mase_naive":1.195,"mase_snaive":1.829,"smape_naive":14.89,"coverage_model":0.744},{"best":"naive","mase":1.781,"smape":21.18,"months":12,"passes":false,"origins":37,"rel_mae":1.057,"coverage":0.712,"error_hi":0.392589,"error_lo":-0.289158,"mase_naive":1.686,"mase_snaive":1.935,"smape_naive":21.59,"coverage_model":0.721},{"best":"naive","mase":2.938,"smape":34.83,"months":24,"passes":false,"origins":33,"rel_mae":1.112,"coverage":0.687,"error_hi":0.751905,"error_lo":-0.427106,"mase_naive":2.641,"mase_snaive":2.801,"smape_naive":33.07,"coverage_model":0.593},{"best":"seasonal_naive","mase":3.664,"smape":41.46,"months":36,"passes":false,"origins":29,"rel_mae":1.362,"coverage":0.73,"error_hi":0.981527,"error_lo":-0.364879,"mase_naive":2.963,"mase_snaive":2.691,"smape_naive":32.9,"coverage_model":0.67},{"best":"naive","mase":3.836,"smape":48.08,"months":60,"passes":false,"origins":21,"rel_mae":0.966,"coverage":0.604,"error_hi":0.890147,"error_lo":-0.087966,"mase_naive":3.97,"mase_snaive":4.328,"smape_naive":49.47,"coverage_model":0.488}],"data_to":"2026-09-01","origins":40,"withheld":"no_skill","benchmark":"best of naive and seasonal naive","last_origin":"2026-06-01","min_origins":8,"first_origin":"2016-09-01","max_coverage":0.92,"min_coverage":0.65,"horizon_months":0}},"ck_content_license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","license_note":"CC BY 4.0 covers CK Economics' own calculations and projections. Source data remains under its publisher's terms.","terms":"https://www.ckeconomics.com/terms","citation":"Conkling & Kopcik Economics. (2026). 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